The State of Corporate Treasury: Late 2025 Reflections and Key Metrics

As we move deeper into the back half of 2025, corporate treasury functions continue to face a convergence of pressures: macro volatility, capital markets dynamics, regulatory shifts, and rapid technology change. The smart treasurer is not just focused on liquidity and hedging, but on anticipating inflection points across markets, policy, and enterprise strategy.

Major Trends and Developments in Corporate Treasury

1. Rising Yields & Capital Cost Pressures

One of the most critical challenges is the upward pressure on yields. As the 10-year Treasury hovers near ~4.16%–4.17%, borrowing costs for corporates, especially those with growth or capital expenditure plans, are under stress. Analysts warn that this dynamic could slow down AI/infrastructure spending, particularly by tech firms financing expansion via debt. For treasuries, this means more focus than ever on duration risk, hedging, and timing new issuance.

2. Heavy Issuance, Especially in Investment Grade

Despite cost headwinds, corporates are still tapping debt markets aggressively. Investment-grade issuance is seeing strong traction, in part because demand from fixed-income investors remains elevated. For example, Oracle recently launched a massive bond deal, contributing to a supply surge. Indeed, investment-grade issuance is expected to cross ~$1.45 trillion for the year in the U.S. The dynamic is supported by favorable credit spreads and investor appetite. That said, deal pipelines are uneven—some quarters may see pullbacks under macro or political uncertainty.

3. AI & Treasury Tech Accelerates

Treasury is no longer just a back-office cost center. It’s rapidly becoming a tech-embedded strategic hub. FIS recently unveiled Neural Treasury, a cloud-native, AI/ML-powered suite (with its own Treasury GPT model) designed to automate forecasting, fraud detection, liquidity insights, and operational workstreams. The broader industry is also seeing increased exploration of generative and agentic AI in treasury workflows—for example, real-time forecasting, FX decision support, anomaly detection, and reconciliation. But as many practitioners caution, AI must be wielded carefully: data quality, governance, explainability, and alignment with strategic intent remain critical.

4. Regulatory & Disclosure Risks, Especially in Crypto Moves

One high-visibility story: U.S. regulators (SEC, FINRA) are examining unusual trading activity preceding announcements by companies that raised funds to invest in cryptocurrencies. Over 200 firms have been contacted in 2025. The focus is whether insider leaks or selective disclosures occurred. The scrutiny could dampen enthusiasm for corporate crypto treasuries, especially given the reputational and compliance risk involved.

On the broader regulatory front, treasurers must also watch evolving policy around digital assets and stablecoins, data privacy, cross-border payments reforms, and tax regulation—all of which can reshape treasury strategy.

5. Regional & Emerging Market Shifts

Globally, treasury transformation is accelerating – but at different paces. In India, for instance, nearly half of treasury leaders rank automation as a top investment priority, though many still rely heavily on spreadsheets and struggle with analytics maturity. In Asia, treasuries embed shared services, hybrid models, and regional hubs to manage FX, funding, and connectivity risk. Meanwhile, EM corporate bond markets remain a place of opportunity—and risk—depending on currency stability, credit policy, and global funding conditions.

Final Thoughts & Strategic Questions

The current treasury landscape is one of both opportunity and danger. Elevated yields and capital cost pressures mean that execution timing, hedging strategy, and balance sheet discipline are more important than ever. Meanwhile, new tools—particularly around AI and automation—offer leverage to do more with less, but must be adopted with due care.

Some questions for treasurers (or their leadership) to ponder:

• How much runway do we have before rising yields force us to pull back on debt-funded growth plans?

• Are our forecasting and liquidity models robust enough under stress scenarios?

• Can we pilot or scale AI/agentic capabilities while maintaining governance, auditability, and transparency?

• Do we have the compliance oversight and board alignment to venture into crypto or stablecoin strategies?

• In which regions or subsidiaries do we need to localize treasury operations or hedge for FX/funding risks more aggressively?